淮河上游干流径流量对不同气候要素变化的响应研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

薛颖  高超  张勋  许莹  李鹏 《水文》2017,37(3):22-28

基于淮河流域上游地区8个气象站点1959~2008年日降水量与温度数据,通过改变降水量和温度建立25种气候情景,利用SWIM水文模型,对不同情景下的径流量进行模拟,分析了淮河上游地区径流量对不同气候要素变化的敏感性,有利于该地区旱涝灾害的及时预警。结果表明,淮河流域上游地区,降水量的变化对径流量的影响较大,在仅考虑降水量和温度的情况下,径流量对降水量变化的敏感性系数处在1.7012~2.1358范围内,而对温度变化的敏感性较弱,三个站点径流量对温度变化的敏感性系数处在-0.0499~0.1547范围内;研究区在研究期内降水量变化对径流量的变化贡献较小,由大坡岭向下游依次为-0.0014,-0.0052,-0.0009,温度变化对径流量的贡献较大,由大坡岭向下游依次为0.0828,0.0152,0.0039,径流量对气候要素的响应不仅由其对气候要素变化的敏感性决定,也受到气候要素变化幅度的影响。  相似文献   

淮河流域极端径流的时空变化规律及统计模拟   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

杜鸿  夏军  曾思栋  佘敦先  张永勇  严子奇 《地理学报》2012,67(3):398-409

以淮河流域蚌埠闸以上20 个水文站点1956-2010 年日径流量观测数据资料为基础,采用游程检验、趋势检验和Mann-Kendall 检验法分析年最大日径流量的变化规律。分别采用年最大值法(annual maximum,AM) 和超门限峰值法(peaks over threshold,POT) 抽取径流序列样本, 运用广义极值分布(generalized extreme value distribution,GEV) 和广义帕累托分布(generalized Pareto distribution,GPD) 两种极值统计模型对规范化样本进行拟合,分析淮河流域极端径流的时空变化规律。研究表明:1956-2010 年,淮河流域蚌埠闸以上的研究站点中,10 个站点的年最大日径流量有减少的趋势,另外10 个站点有不显著的增加趋势。极端径流事件大多发生在20 世纪60、70 年代,且以汛期居多。淮河流域的极端径流主要来自淮河干流、淮南山区和伏牛山区。使用Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) 法检验发现,GEV和GPD分布分别能较好的拟合AM和POT序列。采用百分位阈值法、平均超出量函数图法和超定量洪峰法三种方法选取阈值,对于淮河流域的极端径流事件模拟而言,百分位阈值法较好。  相似文献   

Environmental archaeology on Longshan Culture (4500–4000 aBP) at Yuhuicun Site in Bengbu, Anhui Province     

ZHANG Guangsheng  ZHU Cheng  WANG Jihuai  ZHU Guangyao  MA Chunmei  ZHENG Chaogui  ZHAO Lanhui  LI Zhongxuan  LI Lan  JIN Aichun 《地理学报》2010,20(3):455-468

Based on the samples collected from the west wall of the ABYT2004 at Yuhuicun Site in Bengbu, Anhui Province, the multi-environmental substitute indexes such as the grain-size, Rb/Sr, zircon crystal morphology and magnetic susceptibility were analyzed. The age of archaeological strata was determined by AMS14C dating. According to the results, combined with the information of the ancient human activities and the cultural heritage data obtained from the Longshan cultural archaeological strata, it can be concluded that (1) Before 4500 aBP, the climate was humid and water level was high in the Huaihe River and its tributaries, the drainage basin and its surrounding areas were even flooded, so the site area was submerged and there were no human activities around the site. (2) About 4500 aBP, the climate began to become drier and water level of the Huaihe River and its tributaries began to decline, thus floodplain gradually appeared, Yuhuicun Site and Longshan Culture began to appear. (3) Around 4100 aBP, the climate was humid and rainfall was abundant, which resulted in frequent flood disasters in the whole Huaihe River Basin. (4) After 4100 aBP, the climate gradually transited to be cold and dry, agricultural production was constrained to reduce the food source, Yuhuicun Site was almost abandoned. (5) The environmental information in sedimentary strata and historical records based on ancient books agree with each other. In addition, Yuhuicun Site was related to Dayu Zhishui (Yu the Great in taming the floods) in ancient books.  相似文献   

淮河上游全新世黄土及其沉积动力系统研究   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

何忠  黄春长  周杰  庞奖励  李新艳  王利军  隆浩 《中国沙漠》2010,30(4):816-823

对淮河上游禹州YPC剖面与陇东XJN剖面和关中盆地JYC剖面黄土沉积物进行的分析对比,发现淮河上游地区全新世黄土-土壤剖面与陇东和关中盆地具有相同的沉积和成壤变化过程,但磁化率明显低于陇东和关中盆地,而粒度明显比陇东和关中盆地粗。分析认为,淮河上游和黄土高原地区分属不同的风力系统,有不同的粉尘源区。淮河上游是近源风尘沉积物,粉尘主要来源于黄河下游泛滥平原的风沙地带。其粉尘产生和搬运的动力与黄土高原显著不同,它主要是冬半年华北平原盛行的东北风力系统。  相似文献   

与洪泽湖分离的淮河入海水道可行性分析     

薛春汀  周良勇 《地理研究》2010,29(11):1961-1970

现在的洪泽湖和淮河中游河道不断淤高,致使淮河中游洪涝不断。入洪泽湖后淮河水主要流入长江。而苏北北部地区需要水,因入海泥沙数量太少而致海岸侵蚀问题不能根本解决,那里需要淮河的泥沙。为改变这种不合理的格局。在洪泽湖北岸和浅水区开挖与洪泽湖分离的河道,连接完成远期工程的淮河入海水道和拓宽、挖深的淮沭河—北六塘河—新沂河水道,使淮河水沙只经过这两条水道到达黄海,改变淮河水沙不合理的资源分配。新水道路程短,比降大,使洪泽湖和淮河中游河道不再淤高,并将进一步使淮河中游水道刷深,减轻淮河中游洪涝灾害,并为洪泽湖湖底高程降低创造条件。通过分析现在淮河的输沙量、输沙模数,与历史时期和其他流域对比,认为连云港至射阳河口这段海岸将改变为北部稳定,南部缓慢进积,形成新的淮河三角洲,彻底解决苏北海岸侵蚀问题。  相似文献   

基于利益相关者的LUCC生态风险研究——以延河流域为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

冉圣宏  谈明洪  吕昌河 《地理科学进展》2010,29(4)

采用生态服务价值的大小代表生态服务功能的强弱,以生态系统服务功能理论为基础,以土地利用/覆被变化导致的生态系统服务功能下降作为LUCC生态风险,分别针对土地利用的各利益相关者——土地的所有者或经营者(个人、社区和国家),定量分析各利益相关者在土地利用/覆被变化的背景下所承受的生态风险。研究表明,由于土地利用/覆被变化的因素,延河流域2000-2006年间生态服务功能总体上升了28.91%,这主要归功于延河流域实施的退耕还林还草措施。对LUCC的不同利益相关者进行分析的结果表明,2000-2006年间,国家、社区和个人的生态服务功能均有所增强,增加值分别为34.71%、33.64%、14.57%;它们所面临的主要生态风险是,个人在本区域获取食物供应的能力下降了5.71%,国家在生物控制方面的能力下降了24.56%。  相似文献   

淮河上游全新世黄土与成壤环境变化     

李新艳  黄春长  庞奖励  何忠 《地理学报(英文版)》2009,19(1):107-117

Based on field surveys, soil samples were collected at the YPC site, Yuzhou City, Henan Province for analysis of contents of major and trace elements and their variations with XRF and comparison with the curves of magnetic susceptibility, pH value distribution, loss on ignition and particle-size distribution. It was concluded that the dust source of loess in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin was different from that in the Loess Plateau. And the Holocene pedogenic environmental changes in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin were revealed. Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40571154; No.40471119 Author: Li Xinyan (1978–), Ph.D, specialized in resource exploitation and environmental science.  相似文献   

Effects of spatial information of soil physical properties on hydrological modeling based on a distributed hydrological model     

LI Xianghu  ZHANG Qi  YE Xuchun 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2013,23(2):182-193

The spatial distribution of soil physical properties is essential for modeling and understanding hydrological processes. In this study, the different spatial information (the conventional soil types map-based spatial information (STMB) versus refined spatial information map (RSIM)) of soil physical properties, including field capacity, soil porosity and saturated hydraulic conductivity are used respectively as input data for Water Flow Model for Lake Catchment (WATLAC) to determine their effectiveness in simulating hydrological processes and to expound the effects on model performance in terms of estimating groundwater recharge, soil evaporation, runoff generation as well as partitioning of surface and subsurface water flow. The results show that: 1) the simulated stream flow hydrographs based on the STMB and RSIM soil data reproduce the observed hydrographs well. There is no significant increase in model accuracy as more precise soil physical properties information being used, but WATLAC model using the RSIM soil data could predict more runoff volume and reduce the relative runoff depth errors; 2) the groundwater recharges have a consistent trend for both cases, while the STMB soil data tend to produce higher groundwater recharges than the RSIM soil data. In addition, the spatial distribution of annual groundwater recharge is significantly affected by the spatial distribution of soil physical properties; 3) the soil evaporation simulated using the STMB and RSIM soil data are similar to each other, and the spatial distribution patterns are also insensitive to the spatial information of soil physical properties; and 4) although the different spatial information of soil physical properties does not cause apparent difference in overall stream flow, the partitioning of surface and subsurface water flow is distinct. The implications of this study are that the refined spatial information of soil physical properties does not necessarily contribute to a more accurate prediction of stream flow, and the selection of appropriate soil physical property data needs to consider the scale of watersheds and the level of accuracy required.  相似文献   

水文模型参数敏感性快速定量评估的RSMSobol方法   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

孔凡哲  宋晓猛  占车生  叶爱中 《地理学报》2011,66(9):1270-1280

水文模型参数敏感性分析是模型不确定性量化研究的重要环节,其可以有效识别关键参数,减少模型率定的不确定性,提高模型优化效率。然而如何快速有效地定量评估参数敏感性已成为当前大尺度分布式水文模型优化的瓶颈。针对传统的全局定量敏感性分析方法在多参数复杂水文模型的不足,本文采用基于统计学习理论的支持向量机(SVM) 建立非参数响应曲面(称为代理模型),再结合基于方差的Sobol 方法,建立了基于响应曲面方法的Sobol 定量全局敏感性分析方法(RSMSobol 方法),实现复杂模型系统参数敏感性的快速定量化评估。本文选用淮河流域的日尺度分布式时变增益水文模型进行实例研究,采用水量平衡系数(WB),Nash-Sutcliffe 效率系数(NS) 和相关系数(RC) 三个目标函数综合评价模拟效果。研究结果显示RSMSobol方法在实现定量全局敏感性分析的同时降低了模型运行时耗,提高了模型评估效率,且与传统定量方法Sobol 方法具有同样的评估效果。该方法的有效应用为大型复杂水文动力模拟系统的参数定量化敏感性评价提供了参考,为模型参数进一步优化提供了可靠依据。  相似文献   

A process-based,distributed hydrologic model based on a large-scale method for surface–subsurface coupling     

Chaopeng Shen  Mantha S. Phanikumar 《Advances in water resources》2010

Process-based watershed models are useful tools for understanding the impacts of natural and anthropogenic influences on water resources and for predicting water and solute fluxes exported from watersheds to receiving water bodies. The applicability of process-based hydrologic models has been previously limited to small catchments and short time frames. Computational demands, especially the solution to the three-dimensional subsurface flow domain, continue to pose significant constraints. This paper documents the mathematical development, numerical testing and the initial application of a new distributed hydrologic model PAWS (Process-based Adaptive Watershed Simulator). The model solves the governing equations for the major hydrologic processes efficiently so that large scale applications become relevant. PAWS evaluates the integrated hydrologic response of the surface–subsurface system using a novel non-iterative method that couples runoff and groundwater flow to vadose zone processes approximating the 3D Richards equation. The method is computationally efficient and produces physically consistent solutions. All flow components have been independently verified using analytical solutions and experimental data where applicable. The model is applied to a medium-sized watershed in Michigan (1169 km²) achieving high performance metrics in terms of streamflow prediction at two gages during the calibration and verification periods. PAWS uses public databases as input and possesses full capability to interact with GIS datasets. Future papers will describe applications to other watersheds and the development and application of fate and transport modules.  相似文献